UFC Vegas 49 goes down this weekend at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. In the main event, Islam Makhachev takes on Bobby Green on short notice.
Makhachev was originally scheduled to fight Beneil Dariush, but the latter had to pull out due to injury, allowing Green to step in on less than two weeks’ notice. The Dagestani is a massive favourite ahead of the fight, but the American is an extremely dangerous opponent, in part because he has nothing to lose. Makhachev most recently submitted Dan Hooker in the first round of their fight at UFC 267, while Green is coming off a unanimous decision win against Nasrat Haqparast earlier this month at UFC 271.
UFC Vegas 49 Analysis And Prediction
Green is an extremely well-rounded fighter, who has crisp striking and strong wrestling. Makhachev has solid striking but his grappling is in a different stratosphere compared to Green, and most lightweights. Green deserves all the respect in the world for stepping in on 10 days’ notice.
‘King’ is a high-volume striker, so if he is able to stop Makhachev’s takedowns, he can inflict damage, but stopping the Russian from taking the fight to the mat will be extremely tough. While the chances of a knockout win for Green are there, they aren’t very high because Green only has one stoppage win since 2013. Makhachev has an uber impressive striking defence as well, so he won’t be an easy man to hit.
Statistically, Green has better offence as he lands nearly six significant strikes per minute on average, whereas Makhachev lands close to three. Makhachev is better defensively as he absorbs less than one strike per minute on average, whereas Green absorbs close to four.
Green has excellent wrestling skills, but he’s certainly not as technical as Makhachev, who stays very busy on the mat. Makhachev averages nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts at least one submission. Green averages one takedown per 15 minutes, but he hasn’t had a lot of success with submissions in the UFC.
The UFC veteran deserves credit for taking this fight, but Makhachev will do what he does best and solidify his place as the number one contender.
Prediction: Islam Makhachev by submission
Islam Makhachev (-900)
Bobby Green (+600)
Who do you think will win the UFC Vegas 49 main event between Islam Makhachev and Bobby Green?