UFC 279: Diaz vs Ferguson Preview, Prediction And Betting Odds


UFC 279 goes down this weekend at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. In the main event, Nate Diaz gets a new opponent in Tony Ferguson after Khamzat Chimaev misses weight by 7.5 pounds for their welterweight bout.

UFC 279 fight week has arguably been the craziest in the promotion’s history. From backstage verbal exchanges and brawls to Chimaev shooting himself in the foot by missing weight for the most important fight of his career, it has had everything. As a result of ‘Borz’ missing weight, he will now feature in the co-main event against Kevin Holland. Whereas Diaz, much to the joy of the MMA community, will lock horns with Ferguson in a battle for the ages.

UFC 279: Diaz vs Ferguson Analysis And Prediction

Diaz vs Ferguson is an extremely fair fight. Both men are past their prime and are favourable matchups for one another. The Stockton native is a very well rounded fighter. He has solid boxing and BJJ. He is a very accurate striker and when he’s in his zone, he’s a treat to watch. However, he’s not as versatile as Ferguson, who approaches striking in a very unorthodox way and is very dangerous on the mat as well. Both fighters are very durable so we should expect a highly entertaining contest. 

In an all-out striking battle, Ferguson will have a slight edge, because although Diaz doesn’t have a lot of tricks up his sleeve, his boxing is good enough to hurt his opponent.

Both fighters are very even statistically as both land close to five significant strikes per minute on average and absorb a little less than four. Ferguson will have the edge when it comes to wrestling, but when it comes to submissions, picking the better fighter is a difficult task. Stats slightly favour Diaz however, as he has won more fights by way of submission and attempts more submissions (1.3 per 15 minutes) than Ferguson (1.1).

Ferguson is currently riding a four fight losing streak, but he looked great against Michael Chandler in his most recent fight up until the second round knockout, and Diaz is a very winnable fight for him. The fight is going to be a classic, but expect Ferguson to return to winning ways.

Prediction: Tony Ferguson by decision

Betting Odds

Nate Diaz (+135)

Tony Ferguson (-155)

Who do you think would win the UFC 279 main event between Nate Diaz and Tony Ferguson?